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[GERDA] - Team-Bewertung 2018 3/3
#1

5. Bochum Bushwhackers:

QBKirk CousinsRyan TannehillJameis Winston
RB
Alvin KamaraLeVeon BellJordan HowardKalen Ballage
WR
Michael ThomasStefon DiggsJuJu Smith-SchusterEmmanuel SandersDeVante ParkerChristian KirkCourtland Sutton
TE
David NjokuMike GesickiNick Vannett
PK
Robbie Gould

Overview:
In a competitive league, almost every team has a weakness. It's almost impossible to build a team that is strong at all three core positions (quarterback, running back and wide receiver). As you probably suspect, we perceive your weakness to be at the quarterback position. Of all the deficiencies to have though, this is usually the easiest one to mask.
Footballguys owner David Dodds even recommends you go into your draft with the goal of landing the top RBs and WRs while waiting to grab QBs late. Value-Based Drafting principles also suggest that teams constructed in this manner end up being strong. But for this team to reach it's full potential, you might need to have a quick trigger finger at the QB position and stay on the look out for good quarterback help. Last year Jared Goff could be had very cheap in August, but ended up contributing to a lot of fantasy championships. In 2016 it was Dak Prescott; In 2015 it was Blake Bortles, and in 2014 Ben Roethlisberger. Quarterbacks like these can be found every year, and that could be the key to your team's success.
So although this team isn't perfect (few are), it should still be a strong contender.
Players we particularly like on this team include Christian Kirk and Emmanuel Sanders. We have both these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.
Bottom line:
  • With great inseason management, we think you have about a 85 percent chance of making the playoffs.
  • With good inseason management, we think you have about a 75 percent chance of making the playoffs.
  • With average inseason management, we think you have a 66 percent chance of making the playoffs.
In any event, we wish you the best of luck. Here's hoping all your weeks are like week 12 of 2016:
Michael Thomas vs. LA: 108 receiving yards, 2 TD
Emmanuel Sanders vs. KC: 162 receiving yards, 1 TD
Kirk Cousins vs. DAL: 449 passing yards, 3 TD
LeVeon Bell vs. IND: 142 combined yards, 1 TD
Ryan Tannehill vs. SF: 285 passing yards, 3 TD


QB Summary:
We have Kirk Cousins rated #10 among quarterbacks, which makes him a viable starter if not an exciting one. And we're not crazy about Ryan Tannehill (ranked #26 among quarterbacks) as a backup. If Cousins turns in the season we expect, this position won't ruin you, but it probably won't be a strength either. And if things go wrong, it could be a long year at QB.
Incidentally, Tannehill has what we project as a good matchup (GB) during Cousins's bye.
A quick note about the Cousins/Stefon Diggs hookup you've got here: while we think the effect of the quarterback/receiver hookup has largely been exaggerated in fantasy football circles, it does have a tendency to make your team somewhat more inconsistent than comparable scoring duos from different NFL teams. But if you like the players at both ends of the connection, we do not see any need to make a change because of it.
Jameis Winston is an excellent depth pick, though you may not end up using him much.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Kirk Cousins is ranked #8 by some of our writers, which would make him a fine first quarterback. Jason Wood reasons, "Cousins made lemonade out of lemons in Washington, so imagine what he can do on a team with a great offensive line, Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs, Kyle Rudolph, and Dalvin Cook?"
RB Summary:
Alvin Kamara is a solid choice as a top running back. He's our #7 RB, so you're ahead of most teams there.
LeVeon Bell looks great as a second running back; he's a likely flex starter. Likewise, Jordan Howard should be excellent at RB3. Kalen Ballage is a very weak fourth running back.
As we mentioned earlier, the QB/receiver hookup tends to make your team a little more inconsistent. But that's not the case with the Kamara/Michael Thomas and Bell/JuJu Smith-Schuster pairs you've got here. Though the effect is probably negligible, this kind of pairing is likely to make your team more consistent if anything. See this article (which was written before the 2008 season) for more discussion.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Some of our staffers have Alvin Kamara as high as #4, which would make him an above average first running back. Jeff Pasquino's take: "Kamara cannot possibly keep up the insane numbers he had last year with over six yards per carry and 10 yards per reception along with 13 touchdowns. Kamara's production of over 1,500 yards with just 202 regular season touches is beyond remarkable. His present draft value is more of a reflection of those numbers than his likely regression to more realistic stats this season, making his upside next to nonexistent as a Top 5 fantasy running back. "
WR Summary:
Your starting receiver group is a strength, particularly Stefon Diggs as a second receiver. We figure them at a combined 1.4 points per game better than an average opponent in this league. Michael Thomas is our 10th ranked WR, Diggs is #15, and we have JuJu Smith-Schuster 19th.
Your bench also looks good. We love Emmanuel Sanders as a fourth receiver. DeVante Parker is also a very nice WR5.
Since you're strong at the position, you probably don't absolutely need to roster more than five players here. Of your remaining guys, we like Christian Kirk the best, but you should keep the one you think has the best chance of putting up starter numbers. The rest might be considered expendable if you find you need roster space elsewhere.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Michael Thomas is ranked #4 by some of our writers, which would make him an above average first receiver. Jeff Haseley reasons, "Michael Thomas is the next best receiver behind the Top 3 of Brown, Hopkins and Beckham. You could argue Julio Jones too, but Thomas is more consistent in weekly production in my opinion, plus I like the combination of Drew Brees and Sean Payton over Matt Ryan and Steve Sarkisian when it comes to offensive football knowledge and ability. "
TE Summary:
David Njoku is viable but below average as a starting tight end (we have him ranked #12). We're also not too fired up about Mike Gesicki as a backup.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Some of our staffers have David Njoku as high as #10, which would make him a fine first tight end. Matt Waldman's take: "Njoku flashed moments of excellence as a pass receiver. His position coach Greg Seamon said that Njoku didn't know much at all about footwork and routes during his first year in Cleveland and Njoku still had a strong rookie year. Seamon says Njoku is a lot better this year and should be a force in the red zone. "
Some members of our staff have Mike Gesicki ranked as high as 21st, which would make him an above average second tight end. Jason Wood defends his high ranking as follows: "Gesicki is building a fast rapport with Ryan Tannehill. "
Kicker Summary:
Robbie Gould, our 15th ranked kicker, is below average but probably adequate.

Die Titelkandidaten:

4. St. Erpel Hooligans:

QBTom BradyJimmy Garoppolo
RBDavid JohnsonAdrian PetersonAaron JonesLeGarrette BlountJerick McKinnon
WRJulio JonesA.J. GreenJordy NelsonTyrell WilliamsJohn BrownDanny AmendolaTaywan TaylorAlbert WilsonDez Bryant
TERob GronkowskiAntonio Gates
PKJosh Lambo
TD

Overview:
We'll start by complimenting you on your strength at quarterback, receiver, and tight end. As you know, it's very difficult in a competitive league to assemble a team that is strong at QB, RB, and WR, so just about every team will have a weakness. As you probably suspect, we perceive yours to be at running back.
In 2018, that's not an instant fantasy team killer like it might have been five years ago. And in this particular case, we absolutely think you're strong enough elsewhere to overcome it. You've definitely got a good team here, but we'd feel better if we knew you were committed to keeping an eye out for the 2018 version of last season's David Johnson or 2014's C.J. Anderson or Jeremy Hill.
Players we particularly like on this team include Tom Brady, Tyrell Williams, David Johnson, John Brown, Jimmy Garoppolo, Danny Amendola, and Taywan Taylor. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.
Bottom line:
  • With great inseason management, we think you have about a 85 percent chance of making the playoffs.
  • With good inseason management, we think you have about a 80 percent chance of making the playoffs.
  • With average inseason management, we think you have a 68 percent chance of making the playoffs.
In any event, we wish you the best of luck. Here's hoping all your weeks are like week 3 of 2015:
A.J. Green vs. BAL: 227 receiving yards, 2 TD
Julio Jones vs. DAL: 164 receiving yards, 2 TD
LeGarrette Blount vs. JAX: 92 combined yards, 3 TD
Adrian Peterson vs. SD: 126 combined yards, 2 TD


QB Summary:
We expect Tom Brady to be a solid starter. According to our projections, he's the #2 QB, so you should be better off than most teams in the starting quarterback slot.
Jimmy Garoppolo, who we have rated as the #11 QB, is a nice backup and could conceivably emerge as either a starter for your team or, if Brady plays as expected, some tempting trade bait for teams with quarterback troubles.
Note that Brady and Garoppolo have the same bye week. We don't necessarily disapprove of this if you like both of them, but don't forget about it. You have no other options at this point.
A quick note about the Brady/Rob Gronkowski hookup you've got here: while we think the effect of the quarterback/receiver hookup has largely been exaggerated in fantasy football circles, it does have a tendency to make your team somewhat more inconsistent than comparable scoring duos from different NFL teams. But if you like the players at both ends of the connection, we do not see any need to make a change because of it.
RB Summary:
Obviously, David Johnson is a great way to anchor any RB group. We've got him ranked #3 at the position, and by our reckoning he gives you about a 2.0 point advantage over an average team in the first RB slot, which is good considering the rest of your running backs won't necessarily inspire fear in your opponents.
Adrian Peterson is a little below average as a second running back; he's a likely flex starter. Aaron Jones also looks somewhat weak as a third RB. We don't particularly like LeGarrette Blount as a fourth running back.
Because you're not particularly strong overall at the position, adding some depth here was a good idea. But we're not convinced Jerick McKinnon is the right player for the job. Check the end of the report for some alternative suggestions.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Some members of our staff have Adrian Peterson ranked as high as 30th. Matt Waldman defends his high ranking as follows: "Peterson looked every bit like he did last year in Arizona when the Cardinals offensive line was healthy for a short period of time. He has likely earned he starting job. "
LeGarrette Blount is ranked #47 by some of our writers, which would make him an above average fourth running back. Matt Waldman reasons, "If Kerryon Johnson plays to his talent, Blount will be expendable by September. However, I expect Blount to to earn a short-yardage and red zone role. He's a quick-footed back with good vision who can give Detroit a downhill power back in case Johnson falters. On talent and track record alone, Blount it worth a pick in the second half of drafts. "
WR Summary:
Your starting receiver group is a strength, particularly Julio Jones as a top receiver. We figure them at a combined 2.5 points per game better than an average opponent in this league. Jones is our fourth ranked WR, A.J. Green is #9, and we have Jordy Nelson 36th.
Your bench also looks good. Tyrell Williams should serve as a very solid fourth receiver. Likewise, John Brown should be excellent at WR5.
Since you're strong at the position, you probably don't absolutely need to roster more than five players here. Of your remaining guys, we like Danny Amendola the best, but you should keep the one you think has the best chance of putting up starter numbers. The rest might be considered expendable if you find you need roster space elsewhere.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Jordy Nelson is ranked #35 by some of our writers, which would make him an above average third receiver. Matt Waldman reasons, "It appears my colleagues believe Nelson's time as a top-15 fantasy receiver are over. Nelson is older and a little slower. He's also going to play a different position and when you examine the differences with his role, you realize there's an opportunity for Nelson to become a strong fantasy value on draft day. Martavis Bryant is on the second team right now, which could make Nelson the split end in Jon Gruden's offense but he and Amari Cooper could alternate between split end and flanker. Nelson could also alternate between the flanker and slot, the two receiver positions that see the least amount of press coverage. Nelson remains a great pass catcher with terrific route skills. I think he will challenge for the team lead in receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns. "
TE Summary:
As you are well aware, Rob Gronkowski is an elite tight end. We have him ranked first overall at the position. He's about 3.9 points per game better than an average starting TE in this league. We don't see Antonio Gates as an adequate second tight end. An upgrade here would be nice, but if Gronkowski holds up, it won't matter.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Antonio Gates is ranked #24 by some of our writers, which would make him a fine second tight end. Jason Wood reasons, "Gates is unsigned currently, but with Hunter Henry on injured reserve, it makes all the sense in the world for the future Hall-of-Famer to re-sign with the Chargers for one more season. "
Kicker Summary:
We don't think Josh Lambo is starter quality in this league. Keep a sharp eye on the waiver wire.

3. Reinheim SilverSharks:

QBAndrew LuckMarcus MariotaSam DarnoldSam Bradford
RB
Alex CollinsRoyce FreemanMarlon MackChris CarsonDevontae BookerDOnta ForemanSamaje Perine
WR
Odell Beckham JrKeenan AllenJosh GordonDevin FunchessSammy WatkinsJohn RossD.J. Chark
TE
Travis KelceJake Butt
PK
Ryan Succop
TD

Overview:
Your receivers are the strongest part of this team and you look good at tight end as well. It's rare for us to endorse a team with weaknesses at quarterback and running back, but we're doing it right here! You should have a contender here. But your margin for error in terms of inseason management could be a bit thinner than some of your competitors'. You must remain committed to finding 2018's emergent players at RB and QB.
Players we particularly like on this team include John Ross, Marlon Mack, Devin Funchess, Keenan Allen, Royce Freeman, Devontae Booker, Sam Darnold, and Chris Carson. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.
Bottom line:
  • With great inseason management, we think you have about a 90 percent chance of making the playoffs.
  • With good inseason management, we think you have about a 85 percent chance of making the playoffs.
  • With average inseason management, we think you have a 75 percent chance of making the playoffs.
In any event, we wish you the best of luck. Here's hoping all your weeks are like week 11 of 2017:
Keenan Allen vs. BUF: 159 receiving yards, 2 TD
DOnta Foreman vs. ARI: 80 combined yards, 2 TD
Samaje Perine vs. NO: 126 combined yards, 1 TD
Marcus Mariota vs. PIT: 306 passing yards, 2 TD


QB Summary:
We have Andrew Luck rated #13 among quarterbacks, which makes him a viable starter if not an exciting one. Marcus Mariota, our #19 quarterback, should be solid as a backup, but we're not sure if he can hold down the fort as a starter if circumstances force him to be one.
Incidentally, these two have a terrific combined schedule and a nice playoff schedule too. If you simply played the one with the better matchup each week, this is the schedule you'd face:
MIA | HOU | PHI | HOU | NE | NYJ | BUF | OAK | DAL | NE | IND | HOU | NYJ | HOU | NYG | NYG
Though some teams will probably be content to roster as few as two players here, it was not a bad idea to take a few extras because you're not particularly strong overall at the position. Of your remaining guys, we like Sam Darnold the best, but you should keep the one you think has the best chance of putting up starter numbers. The rest might be considered expendable if you find you need roster space elsewhere.
RB Summary:
We have Alex Collins ranked #13 at the position. So while he's passable as a first running back, he doesn't look particularly thrilling.
Royce Freeman should serve as a very solid second running back; he's a likely flex starter. Marlon Mack should also be solidly above average at RB3. We love Chris Carson as a fourth running back. We also very much approve of the selection of Devontae Booker, and not just as insurance for Royce Freeman. He's a fine fifth running back in his own right.
Though some teams will probably be content to roster as few as five players here, it was not a bad idea to take a few extras because you're not particularly strong overall at the position. Of your remaining guys, we like DOnta Foreman the best, but you should keep the one you think has the best chance of putting up starter numbers. The rest might be considered expendable if you find you need roster space elsewhere.
WR Summary:
Nice work here. We like all your starting receivers, as our projections indicate that they give you a combined 4.2 point-per-game advantage over an average opponent in this league. Odell Beckham Jr is our #3 ranked receiver, Keenan Allen is #5, and we have Josh Gordon 25th.
Your bench also looks good. Tough to do better than Devin Funchess at WR4. Sammy Watkins will also be among the best WR5s in the league.
Since you're strong at the position, you probably don't absolutely need to roster more than five players here. Of your remaining guys, we like John Ross the best, but you should keep the one you think has the best chance of putting up starter numbers. The rest might be considered expendable if you find you need roster space elsewhere.
TE Summary:
As you are well aware, Travis Kelce is an elite tight end. We have him ranked second overall at the position. He's about 2.0 points per game better than an average starting TE in this league. We don't see Jake Butt as an adequate second tight end. An upgrade here would be nice, but if Kelce holds up, it won't matter.
Kicker Summary:
We don't think Ryan Succop is starter quality in this league. Keep a sharp eye on the waiver wire.

2. DA Tropics:

QBDeshaun WatsonMatt RyanTyrod Taylor
RB
Todd GurleyChristian McCaffreyJames WhiteLatavius MurrayRob Kelley
WR
Davante AdamsDemaryius ThomasKelvin BenjaminDede WestbrookJermaine Kearse
TE
Jared CookAustin Seferian-JenkinsLance Kendricks
PK
Jake ElliottDustin Hopkins
TD

Overview:
We think you're looking good at quarterback and running back. Your squad is therefore easy for us to like despite a bit of weakness at the receiver position. But as weaknesses go, this is one is survivable. It's usually relatively easy to find fill-in guys on a weekly basis until a better player emerges during the season. As long as you stay on top of things inseason, you should be the league favorite or very close to it.
Players we particularly like on this team include Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Tyrod Taylor, and Latavius Murray. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.
Bottom line:
  • With great inseason management, we think you have about a 90 percent chance of making the playoffs.
  • With good inseason management, we think you have about a 85 percent chance of making the playoffs.
  • With average inseason management, we think you have a 76 percent chance of making the playoffs.
In any event, we wish you the best of luck. Here's hoping all your weeks are like week 15 of 2017:
Todd Gurley vs. SEA: 180 combined yards, 4 TD
Christian McCaffrey vs. GB: 136 combined yards, 1 TD
Tyrod Taylor vs. MIA: 224 passing yards, 2 TD
Latavius Murray vs. CIN: 104 combined yards, 1 TD


QB Summary:
We expect Deshaun Watson to be a solid starter. According to our projections, he's the #5 QB, so you should be better off than most teams in the starting quarterback slot.
Matt Ryan, who we have rated as the #15 QB, is a nice backup and could conceivably emerge as either a starter for your team or, if Watson plays as expected, some tempting trade bait for teams with quarterback troubles.
Incidentally, Ryan has what we project as a good matchup (CLE) during Watson's bye.
Tyrod Taylor is an excellent depth pick, though you may not end up using him much.
RB Summary:
Obviously, Todd Gurley is a great way to anchor any RB group. We've got him ranked #1 at the position, and by our reckoning he gives you about a 4.3 point advantage over an average team in the first RB slot.
Tough to do better than Christian McCaffrey at RB2; he's a likely flex starter. James White should be adequate at RB3. Not only do we like Latavius Murray as a fourth running back, we love that you stole him from the Dalvin Cook owner.
We're not sure that Rob Kelley adds much, as you're already strong at the position and we aren't convinced he's roster-worthy in this league anyway.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Rob Kelley is ranked #37 by some of our writers, which would make him a great fifth running back and even a legitimate RB3. Matt Waldman reasons, "It's likely that Kelley and Samaje Perine will be competing for time behind Adrian Peterson. "
WR Summary:
We like Demaryius Thomas as a second WR, but we consider your starting receivers, as a group, to be a little below par. Davante Adams is our #11 ranked receiver, Thomas is #21, and we have Kelvin Benjamin 38th.
Dede Westbrook is a little below average as a fourth receiver. Jermaine Kearse also figures to be a bit iffy as a fifth WR.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Some of our staffers have Davante Adams as high as #5, which would make him an above average first receiver. Jeff Haseley's take: "Davante Adams is one of three players in the league with 10 touchdowns in each of the last two seasons. Now he'll have Aaron Rodgers without Jordy Nelson. This needle is definitely pointing up for Adams to break into the Top 5. "
Kelvin Benjamin is ranked #24 by some of our writers, which would make him a great third receiver and even a legitimate WR2. Jason Wood reasons, "Benjamin's star has fallen, but the Bills have to throw the ball to someone, and Benjamin could see an inordinate target share that offsets his lack of efficiency."
TE Summary:
Jared Cook is just OK as a starting tight end (we have him ranked #13). So the selection of Austin Seferian-Jenkins, who we see as a solid backup, was wise.
Kicker Summary:
Jake Elliott, our eighth ranked kicker, won't win the league for you, but he'll do.

1. Lambeau Leapers:

QBCam NewtonPatrick Mahomes IIEli Manning
RBMelvin GordonKareem HuntMark IngramMark WaltonDerrius Guice
WRAntonio BrownLarry FitzgeraldJarvis LandryWill FullerCalvin RidleyTreQuan SmithJMon Moore
TEJimmy GrahamKyle RudolphHunter Henry
PKJustin Tucker

Overview:
Congratulations! You seem to have grabbed quality players at every turn of this draft. It's rare indeed to be better than the average team at the three core positions (quarterback, running back and receiver), but we think this team is. Tight end, of course, is also a big plus for this team.
You must be among the favorites in this league and have positioned yourself to grab one of the playoff spots. But before you start engraving the trophy, realize that the draft is not the end of the story. Things can and do go wrong, so you need to remain diligent throughout the year to ensure you remain strong until the playoffs.
Players we particularly like on this team include Melvin Gordon, Cam Newton, and Kareem Hunt. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.
Bottom line:
  • With great inseason management, we think you have about a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs.
  • With good inseason management, we think you have about a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs.
  • With average inseason management, we think you have a 92 percent chance of making the playoffs.
In any event, we wish you the best of luck. Here's hoping all your weeks are like week 15 of 2017:
Kareem Hunt vs. LAC: 206 combined yards, 2 TD
Mark Ingram vs. NYJ: 151 combined yards, 2 TD
Cam Newton vs. GB: 242 passing yards, 58 rushing yards, 4 TD
Melvin Gordon vs. KC: 169 combined yards, 1 TD
Eli Manning vs. PHI: 434 passing yards, 3 TD


QB Summary:
We expect Cam Newton to be a solid starter. According to our projections, he's the #4 QB, so you should be better off than most teams in the starting quarterback slot.
Patrick Mahomes II, who we have rated as the #16 QB, is a nice backup and could conceivably emerge as either a starter for your team or, if Newton plays as expected, some tempting trade bait for teams with quarterback troubles.
Incidentally, Mahomes II has what we project as a neutral matchup (DEN) during Newton's bye.
Eli Manning is an excellent depth pick, though you may not end up using him much.
RB Summary:
Melvin Gordon is a solid choice as a top running back. He's our #5 RB, so you're ahead of most teams there.
Tough to do better than Kareem Hunt at RB2; he's a likely flex starter. We also very much approve of the selection of Mark Ingram, and not just because you can hold the Alvin Kamara owner hostage. He's a fine third running back in his own right. Mark Walton is a very weak fourth running back.
We're not sure that Derrius Guice adds much, as you're already strong at the position and we aren't convinced he's roster-worthy in this league anyway.
WR Summary:
Nice work here. We like all your starting receivers, as our projections indicate that they give you a combined 2.8 point-per-game advantage over an average opponent in this league. Antonio Brown is our #2 ranked receiver, Larry Fitzgerald is #17, and we have Jarvis Landry 32nd.
Your bench also looks good. Will Fuller looks great as a fourth receiver. Calvin Ridley is also a very nice WR5.
Since you're strong at the position, you probably don't absolutely need to roster more than five players here. Of your remaining guys, we like TreQuan Smith the best, but you should keep the one you think has the best chance of putting up starter numbers. The rest might be considered expendable if you find you need roster space elsewhere.
TE Summary:
As you are well aware, Jimmy Graham is an elite tight end. We have him ranked fourth overall at the position. He's about 0.8 points per game better than an average starting TE in this league. We also think Kyle Rudolph is a starting quality tight end in this league. He's a luxury.
We're not sure that Hunter Henry adds much, as you're already strong at the position and we aren't convinced he's roster-worthy in this league anyway.
Kicker Summary:
With Justin Tucker, you should be above average at the position.
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