06.09.2012, 16:27
QB: Drew Brees, Sam Bradford
RB: LeSean McCoy, Ahmad Bradshaw, Roy Helu, Felix Jones
WR: Wes Welker, Marques Colston, Malcom Floyd, Stephen Hill
TE: Brandon Pettigrew, Ed Dickson
PK: Stephen Gostkowski
Overview:
Let's start by remarking that we appreciate your old-school leanings: you have a team marked by strength at the running back position. Because the position is so sought after, a team constructed like this usually has a chance to make the playoffs. But with the quarterback and wide receiver both being less strong, you may need to do something to change the outlook of this team. Your deficiencies are likely to show themselves through the bye weeks, so try to manuever early in improving the quarterback and/or receiver positions before week four.
Keep an eye out for quarterbacks like Cam Newton last year, Michael Vick and Josh Freeman in 2010, Brett Favre in 2009, Matt Cassel and Kurt Warner in 2008, and Derek Anderson in 2007. All were available cheap in August, and all contributed to fantasy championship teams. Similarly, wide receivers like Victor Cruz and Laurent Robinson were available after a lot of the drafts. Landing some of this year's top waiver players would be a huge help, so pay close attention to increased workloads, targets, injuries, etc.
Players we particularly like on this team include Drew Brees, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Stephen Gostkowski. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.
Bottom line:
With great inseason management, we think you have about a 70 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With good inseason management, we think you have about a 50 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With average inseason management, we think you have a 33 percent chance of making the playoffs.
In any event, we wish you the best of luck. Here's hoping all your weeks are like week 3 of 2011:
Wes Welker vs. BUF: 217 receiving yards, 2 TD
LeSean McCoy vs. NYG: 141 combined yards, 1 TD
Ahmad Bradshaw vs. PHI: 139 combined yards, 1 TD
Drew Brees vs. HOU: 370 passing yards, 3 TD
QB Summary:
You don't need us to tell you this, but we'll tell you anyway: Drew Brees should ensure that your production at the quarterback position is among the best in the league. We have him as the #2 QB according to your scoring rules, and we figure he gives you about a 2.6 point-per-game advantage over an average starting QB.
As of now, our projections don't indicate that Sam Bradford will be a viable backup quarterback. While the presence of Brees minimizes the need for a top backup, we might recommend taking a quick peek at the free agent list to see if you can find some help. We'll offer some specific suggestions at the end of the report.
Incidentally, Bradford has what we project as a neutral matchup (MIA) during Brees's bye.
A quick note about the Brees/Marques Colston hookup you've got here: while we think the effect of the quarterback/receiver hookup has largely been exaggerated in fantasy football circles, it does have a tendency to make your team somewhat more inconsistent than comparable scoring duos from different NFL teams. But if you like the players at both ends of the connection, we do not see any need to make a change because of it.
We might suggest adding a bit more depth here. See the end of the report for some suggestions on who to pick up.
RB Summary:
Obviously, LeSean McCoy is a great way to anchor any RB group. We've got him ranked #3 at the position, and by our reckoning he gives you about a 2.5 point advantage over an average team in the first RB slot.
Ahmad Bradshaw should serve as a very solid second running back. Roy Helu, on the other hand, is an average-at-best third RB. Not only do we like Felix Jones as a fourth running back, we love that you stole him from the DeMarco Murray owner.
We might suggest adding a bit more depth here. See the end of the report for some suggestions on who to pick up.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Roy Helu is ranked #16 by some of our writers, which would make him a great third running back and even a legitimate RB2. Jeff Tefertiller reasons, "The Redskins will want to run the ball early and often. Helu is easily the most talented of the running backs, but has struggled to surpass the likes of Evan Royster, Alfred Morris, and Tim Hightower. His value plummeted as the Washington coaching staff has shown no confidence in Helu. "
Some members of our staff have Felix Jones ranked as high as 32nd, which would make him a great fourth running back and even a legitimate RB3. Anthony Borbely defends his high ranking as follows: "With the emergence of DeMarco Murray, Jones will once again be relegated to being a change of pace back. That role suits him better than that of an every-down back, but limits him to being an upper-RB4 in non-PPR and mid-RB3 in PPR."
WR Summary:
Your starting receivers should, as a unit, be adequate but not great. In particular we like Marques Colston as a second WR. Wes Welker is our eighth ranked WR, and we have Colston at #16.
Malcom Floyd should be a good third receiver; he's a likely flex starter. But Stephen Hill is out of his league as a fourth WR.
We might suggest adding a bit more depth here. See the end of the report for some suggestions on who to pick up.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Some of our staffers have Wes Welker as high as #3, which would make him an above average first receiver. Heath Cummings's take: "It's impossible to rank Welker too high in PPR. Amidst all the attention given to the Patriots' tight ends in 2011, Welker still caught 122 passes and set career highs in both yards and touchdowns. I don't think he can match the touchdown total from last year, but the Patriots simply have too many weapons to expect that defenses will be able to prevent Welker from again topping 110 catches. "
Stephen Hill is ranked #34 by some of our writers, which would make him a great fourth receiver and even a legitimate WR3. Jeff Tefertiller reasons, "Hill has a very real chance to outproduce Holmes, even as a raw rookie. The veteran has disappointed of late and the reported rift with quarterback Mark Sanchez cannot help. "
TE Summary:
Brandon Pettigrew should be above average as a starting tight end. We have him ranked sixth overall at the position. Ed Dickson is an adequate second tight end.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Some of our staffers have Brandon Pettigrew as high as #5, which would make him an above average first tight end. Mark Wimer's take: "Pettigrew's Lions threw the football the most last season (666 times), but he isn't quite the focal point that Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham are because this team has Calvin Johnson to star as the Lions' (and the NFL's) top receiving option. However, Pettigrew is still a top-5 tight end and worth picking up if you miss out on Graham/Gronkowski in the first rounds of your draft."
Some members of our staff have Ed Dickson ranked as high as 13th, which would make him an above average second tight end. Mark Wimer defends his high ranking as follows: "Ed Dickson's fantasy value started offseason depressed because Dennis Pitta drains away touches and because the Ravens were 18th in the NFL with 544 passes attempted last season (compared to 666 for the top team, Detroit). However, Dennis Pitta broke his hand on July 30 and may not return to practicing until regular season - I have bumped Dickson up the TE board as he'll get a lot of reps to establish his rapport with Joe Flacco now that Pitta is sidelined for a month or more. Even with Dickson's sore shoulder, inflicted in the first preseason game, I like Dickson better than Pitta entering regular season."
Kicker Summary:
With Stephen Gostkowski, you should be above average at the position.
RB: LeSean McCoy, Ahmad Bradshaw, Roy Helu, Felix Jones
WR: Wes Welker, Marques Colston, Malcom Floyd, Stephen Hill
TE: Brandon Pettigrew, Ed Dickson
PK: Stephen Gostkowski
Overview:
Let's start by remarking that we appreciate your old-school leanings: you have a team marked by strength at the running back position. Because the position is so sought after, a team constructed like this usually has a chance to make the playoffs. But with the quarterback and wide receiver both being less strong, you may need to do something to change the outlook of this team. Your deficiencies are likely to show themselves through the bye weeks, so try to manuever early in improving the quarterback and/or receiver positions before week four.
Keep an eye out for quarterbacks like Cam Newton last year, Michael Vick and Josh Freeman in 2010, Brett Favre in 2009, Matt Cassel and Kurt Warner in 2008, and Derek Anderson in 2007. All were available cheap in August, and all contributed to fantasy championship teams. Similarly, wide receivers like Victor Cruz and Laurent Robinson were available after a lot of the drafts. Landing some of this year's top waiver players would be a huge help, so pay close attention to increased workloads, targets, injuries, etc.
Players we particularly like on this team include Drew Brees, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Stephen Gostkowski. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.
Bottom line:
With great inseason management, we think you have about a 70 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With good inseason management, we think you have about a 50 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With average inseason management, we think you have a 33 percent chance of making the playoffs.
In any event, we wish you the best of luck. Here's hoping all your weeks are like week 3 of 2011:
Wes Welker vs. BUF: 217 receiving yards, 2 TD
LeSean McCoy vs. NYG: 141 combined yards, 1 TD
Ahmad Bradshaw vs. PHI: 139 combined yards, 1 TD
Drew Brees vs. HOU: 370 passing yards, 3 TD
QB Summary:
You don't need us to tell you this, but we'll tell you anyway: Drew Brees should ensure that your production at the quarterback position is among the best in the league. We have him as the #2 QB according to your scoring rules, and we figure he gives you about a 2.6 point-per-game advantage over an average starting QB.
As of now, our projections don't indicate that Sam Bradford will be a viable backup quarterback. While the presence of Brees minimizes the need for a top backup, we might recommend taking a quick peek at the free agent list to see if you can find some help. We'll offer some specific suggestions at the end of the report.
Incidentally, Bradford has what we project as a neutral matchup (MIA) during Brees's bye.
A quick note about the Brees/Marques Colston hookup you've got here: while we think the effect of the quarterback/receiver hookup has largely been exaggerated in fantasy football circles, it does have a tendency to make your team somewhat more inconsistent than comparable scoring duos from different NFL teams. But if you like the players at both ends of the connection, we do not see any need to make a change because of it.
We might suggest adding a bit more depth here. See the end of the report for some suggestions on who to pick up.
RB Summary:
Obviously, LeSean McCoy is a great way to anchor any RB group. We've got him ranked #3 at the position, and by our reckoning he gives you about a 2.5 point advantage over an average team in the first RB slot.
Ahmad Bradshaw should serve as a very solid second running back. Roy Helu, on the other hand, is an average-at-best third RB. Not only do we like Felix Jones as a fourth running back, we love that you stole him from the DeMarco Murray owner.
We might suggest adding a bit more depth here. See the end of the report for some suggestions on who to pick up.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Roy Helu is ranked #16 by some of our writers, which would make him a great third running back and even a legitimate RB2. Jeff Tefertiller reasons, "The Redskins will want to run the ball early and often. Helu is easily the most talented of the running backs, but has struggled to surpass the likes of Evan Royster, Alfred Morris, and Tim Hightower. His value plummeted as the Washington coaching staff has shown no confidence in Helu. "
Some members of our staff have Felix Jones ranked as high as 32nd, which would make him a great fourth running back and even a legitimate RB3. Anthony Borbely defends his high ranking as follows: "With the emergence of DeMarco Murray, Jones will once again be relegated to being a change of pace back. That role suits him better than that of an every-down back, but limits him to being an upper-RB4 in non-PPR and mid-RB3 in PPR."
WR Summary:
Your starting receivers should, as a unit, be adequate but not great. In particular we like Marques Colston as a second WR. Wes Welker is our eighth ranked WR, and we have Colston at #16.
Malcom Floyd should be a good third receiver; he's a likely flex starter. But Stephen Hill is out of his league as a fourth WR.
We might suggest adding a bit more depth here. See the end of the report for some suggestions on who to pick up.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Some of our staffers have Wes Welker as high as #3, which would make him an above average first receiver. Heath Cummings's take: "It's impossible to rank Welker too high in PPR. Amidst all the attention given to the Patriots' tight ends in 2011, Welker still caught 122 passes and set career highs in both yards and touchdowns. I don't think he can match the touchdown total from last year, but the Patriots simply have too many weapons to expect that defenses will be able to prevent Welker from again topping 110 catches. "
Stephen Hill is ranked #34 by some of our writers, which would make him a great fourth receiver and even a legitimate WR3. Jeff Tefertiller reasons, "Hill has a very real chance to outproduce Holmes, even as a raw rookie. The veteran has disappointed of late and the reported rift with quarterback Mark Sanchez cannot help. "
TE Summary:
Brandon Pettigrew should be above average as a starting tight end. We have him ranked sixth overall at the position. Ed Dickson is an adequate second tight end.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Some of our staffers have Brandon Pettigrew as high as #5, which would make him an above average first tight end. Mark Wimer's take: "Pettigrew's Lions threw the football the most last season (666 times), but he isn't quite the focal point that Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham are because this team has Calvin Johnson to star as the Lions' (and the NFL's) top receiving option. However, Pettigrew is still a top-5 tight end and worth picking up if you miss out on Graham/Gronkowski in the first rounds of your draft."
Some members of our staff have Ed Dickson ranked as high as 13th, which would make him an above average second tight end. Mark Wimer defends his high ranking as follows: "Ed Dickson's fantasy value started offseason depressed because Dennis Pitta drains away touches and because the Ravens were 18th in the NFL with 544 passes attempted last season (compared to 666 for the top team, Detroit). However, Dennis Pitta broke his hand on July 30 and may not return to practicing until regular season - I have bumped Dickson up the TE board as he'll get a lot of reps to establish his rapport with Joe Flacco now that Pitta is sidelined for a month or more. Even with Dickson's sore shoulder, inflicted in the first preseason game, I like Dickson better than Pitta entering regular season."
Kicker Summary:
With Stephen Gostkowski, you should be above average at the position.
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