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NFFL-Keeper - rated by footballguys.com
#11

QB: Drew Brees, Sam Bradford
RB: LeSean McCoy, Ahmad Bradshaw, Roy Helu, Felix Jones
WR: Wes Welker, Marques Colston, Malcom Floyd, Stephen Hill
TE: Brandon Pettigrew, Ed Dickson
PK: Stephen Gostkowski

Overview:

Let's start by remarking that we appreciate your old-school leanings: you have a team marked by strength at the running back position. Because the position is so sought after, a team constructed like this usually has a chance to make the playoffs. But with the quarterback and wide receiver both being less strong, you may need to do something to change the outlook of this team. Your deficiencies are likely to show themselves through the bye weeks, so try to manuever early in improving the quarterback and/or receiver positions before week four.

Keep an eye out for quarterbacks like Cam Newton last year, Michael Vick and Josh Freeman in 2010, Brett Favre in 2009, Matt Cassel and Kurt Warner in 2008, and Derek Anderson in 2007. All were available cheap in August, and all contributed to fantasy championship teams. Similarly, wide receivers like Victor Cruz and Laurent Robinson were available after a lot of the drafts. Landing some of this year's top waiver players would be a huge help, so pay close attention to increased workloads, targets, injuries, etc.

Players we particularly like on this team include Drew Brees, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Stephen Gostkowski. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.
Bottom line:

With great inseason management, we think you have about a 70 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With good inseason management, we think you have about a 50 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With average inseason management, we think you have a 33 percent chance of making the playoffs.

In any event, we wish you the best of luck. Here's hoping all your weeks are like week 3 of 2011:
Wes Welker vs. BUF: 217 receiving yards, 2 TD
LeSean McCoy vs. NYG: 141 combined yards, 1 TD
Ahmad Bradshaw vs. PHI: 139 combined yards, 1 TD
Drew Brees vs. HOU: 370 passing yards, 3 TD

QB Summary:

You don't need us to tell you this, but we'll tell you anyway: Drew Brees should ensure that your production at the quarterback position is among the best in the league. We have him as the #2 QB according to your scoring rules, and we figure he gives you about a 2.6 point-per-game advantage over an average starting QB.

As of now, our projections don't indicate that Sam Bradford will be a viable backup quarterback. While the presence of Brees minimizes the need for a top backup, we might recommend taking a quick peek at the free agent list to see if you can find some help. We'll offer some specific suggestions at the end of the report.

Incidentally, Bradford has what we project as a neutral matchup (MIA) during Brees's bye.

A quick note about the Brees/Marques Colston hookup you've got here: while we think the effect of the quarterback/receiver hookup has largely been exaggerated in fantasy football circles, it does have a tendency to make your team somewhat more inconsistent than comparable scoring duos from different NFL teams. But if you like the players at both ends of the connection, we do not see any need to make a change because of it.

We might suggest adding a bit more depth here. See the end of the report for some suggestions on who to pick up.

RB Summary:

Obviously, LeSean McCoy is a great way to anchor any RB group. We've got him ranked #3 at the position, and by our reckoning he gives you about a 2.5 point advantage over an average team in the first RB slot.

Ahmad Bradshaw should serve as a very solid second running back. Roy Helu, on the other hand, is an average-at-best third RB. Not only do we like Felix Jones as a fourth running back, we love that you stole him from the DeMarco Murray owner.

We might suggest adding a bit more depth here. See the end of the report for some suggestions on who to pick up.

Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:

Roy Helu is ranked #16 by some of our writers, which would make him a great third running back and even a legitimate RB2. Jeff Tefertiller reasons, "The Redskins will want to run the ball early and often. Helu is easily the most talented of the running backs, but has struggled to surpass the likes of Evan Royster, Alfred Morris, and Tim Hightower. His value plummeted as the Washington coaching staff has shown no confidence in Helu. "

Some members of our staff have Felix Jones ranked as high as 32nd, which would make him a great fourth running back and even a legitimate RB3. Anthony Borbely defends his high ranking as follows: "With the emergence of DeMarco Murray, Jones will once again be relegated to being a change of pace back. That role suits him better than that of an every-down back, but limits him to being an upper-RB4 in non-PPR and mid-RB3 in PPR."

WR Summary:

Your starting receivers should, as a unit, be adequate but not great. In particular we like Marques Colston as a second WR. Wes Welker is our eighth ranked WR, and we have Colston at #16.

Malcom Floyd should be a good third receiver; he's a likely flex starter. But Stephen Hill is out of his league as a fourth WR.

We might suggest adding a bit more depth here. See the end of the report for some suggestions on who to pick up.

Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:

Some of our staffers have Wes Welker as high as #3, which would make him an above average first receiver. Heath Cummings's take: "It's impossible to rank Welker too high in PPR. Amidst all the attention given to the Patriots' tight ends in 2011, Welker still caught 122 passes and set career highs in both yards and touchdowns. I don't think he can match the touchdown total from last year, but the Patriots simply have too many weapons to expect that defenses will be able to prevent Welker from again topping 110 catches. "

Stephen Hill is ranked #34 by some of our writers, which would make him a great fourth receiver and even a legitimate WR3. Jeff Tefertiller reasons, "Hill has a very real chance to outproduce Holmes, even as a raw rookie. The veteran has disappointed of late and the reported rift with quarterback Mark Sanchez cannot help. "

TE Summary:

Brandon Pettigrew should be above average as a starting tight end. We have him ranked sixth overall at the position. Ed Dickson is an adequate second tight end.

Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:

Some of our staffers have Brandon Pettigrew as high as #5, which would make him an above average first tight end. Mark Wimer's take: "Pettigrew's Lions threw the football the most last season (666 times), but he isn't quite the focal point that Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham are because this team has Calvin Johnson to star as the Lions' (and the NFL's) top receiving option. However, Pettigrew is still a top-5 tight end and worth picking up if you miss out on Graham/Gronkowski in the first rounds of your draft."

Some members of our staff have Ed Dickson ranked as high as 13th, which would make him an above average second tight end. Mark Wimer defends his high ranking as follows: "Ed Dickson's fantasy value started offseason depressed because Dennis Pitta drains away touches and because the Ravens were 18th in the NFL with 544 passes attempted last season (compared to 666 for the top team, Detroit). However, Dennis Pitta broke his hand on July 30 and may not return to practicing until regular season - I have bumped Dickson up the TE board as he'll get a lot of reps to establish his rapport with Joe Flacco now that Pitta is sidelined for a month or more. Even with Dickson's sore shoulder, inflicted in the first preseason game, I like Dickson better than Pitta entering regular season."

Kicker Summary:

With Stephen Gostkowski, you should be above average at the position.

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#12

QB: Cam Newton, Josh Freeman
RB: Darren McFadden, Donald Brown, Mark Ingram, Jacquizz Rodgers, David Wilson
WR: Dez Bryant, Steve Smith, Reggie Wayne, Michael Crabtree
TE: Vernon Davis, Owen Daniels
PK: Matt Bryant

Overview:

You've put together a very interesting team here. Our numbers show it as being below average at all three core positions (QB, RB, and WR). And yet, somehow, we don't hate it. With proper care and feeding throughout the season, this team should be above average.

But your margin for error is probably slimmer than that of your fellow contenders. You're going to have to be diligent in your search for help through trades and the waiver wire.

Players we particularly like on this team include Cam Newton, Jacquizz Rodgers, Mark Ingram, Michael Crabtree, and Reggie Wayne. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.
Bottom line:

With great inseason management, we think you have about a 70 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With good inseason management, we think you have about a 55 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With average inseason management, we think you have a 35 percent chance of making the playoffs.

In any event, we wish you the best of luck. Here's hoping all your weeks are like week 4 of 2011:
Cam Newton vs. CHI: 374 passing yards, 3 TD
Josh Freeman vs. IND: 287 passing yards, 2 TD
Steve Smith vs. CHI: 181 receiving yards
Dez Bryant vs. DET: 37 receiving yards, 2 TD

QB Summary:

You don't need us to tell you this, but we'll tell you anyway: Cam Newton should ensure that your production at the quarterback position is among the best in the league. We have him as the #4 QB according to your scoring rules, and we figure he gives you about a 1.4 point-per-game advantage over an average starting QB.

Our projections don't show Josh Freeman as being a top-notch backup, but the issue will be moot as long as Newton stays healthy.

Incidentally, Freeman has what we project as a bad matchup (KC) during Newton's bye.

A quick note about the Newton/Steve Smith hookup you've got here: while we think the effect of the quarterback/receiver hookup has largely been exaggerated in fantasy football circles, it does have a tendency to make your team somewhat more inconsistent than comparable scoring duos from different NFL teams. But if you like the players at both ends of the connection, we do not see any need to make a change because of it.

We might suggest adding a bit more depth here. See the end of the report for some suggestions on who to pick up.

RB Summary:

Darren McFadden is a solid choice as a top running back. He's our #5 RB, so you're ahead of most teams there, which is good considering that, overall, running back is probably not going to be your strongest position.

Donald Brown should be a good second running back. We also very much approve of the selection of Mark Ingram, and not just because you can hold the Darren Sproles owner hostage. He's a fine third running back in his own right. Jacquizz Rodgers looks great as a fourth running back. David Wilson is also a very nice RB5.

Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:

Some of our staffers have Darren McFadden as high as #4, which would make him an above average first running back. Jason Wood's take: "113, 104 and 113. That's McFadden's carry totals in three of four seasons. Yet, it's hard to ignore his upside. If healthy (a HUGE if), McFadden could finish as the #1 ranked fantasy RB -- he's that talented. I've bumped McFadden back into my Top 10 given how effective (and healthy) he's been in camp."

WR Summary:

We like Steve Smith as a second WR, but we consider your starting receivers, as a group, to be a little below par. Dez Bryant is our 13th ranked WR, and we have Smith at #18.

Your bench looks good and should help offset the unexciting starting unit. Reggie Wayne should serve as a very solid third receiver; he's a likely flex starter. Michael Crabtree will also be among the best WR4s in the league.

We might suggest adding a bit more depth here. See the end of the report for some suggestions on who to pick up.

Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:

Some of our staffers have Dez Bryant as high as #9, which would make him a fine first receiver. Anthony Borbely's take: "Bryant is one of the most physically gifted WRs in the league, but a lack of maturity, poor conditioning, and injuries have prevented Bryant from reaching his full potential. Most reports indicate that Bryant had a great offseason in terms of conditioning and practice and that reportedly carried over into the early part of training camp. His knee injury is minor and will not affecting my ranking. Should that continue, this could be the year that Bryant steps into the elite WR category. I am not concerned about the alleged domestic abuse that occurred shortly before training camp started. I am all in on Bryant this year and expect mid-level WR1 numbers."

TE Summary:

Vernon Davis should be above average as a starting tight end. We have him ranked fifth overall at the position. Owen Daniels is a nice backup.

Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:

Some members of our staff have Vernon Davis ranked as high as fourth, which would make him an above average first tight end. Mark Wimer defends his high ranking as follows: "He has the talent to be a dominant tight end in this league, but his team was 31st in passing attempts last year (451). Davis won't overtake Jimmy Graham (662 passing attempts last year in New Orleans) or Rob Gronkowski (612) in fantasy production, even if we see an uptick in the number of passing attempts from the 49ers. Davis did flash his explosive play-making ability with a 44-yard TD reception in the third preseason game."

Kicker Summary:

Matt Bryant, our eighth ranked kicker, won't win the league for you, but he'll do.

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#13

QB: Matthew Stafford, Jake Locker
RB: Reggie Bush, Adrian Peterson, Ryan Williams, Mikel Leshoure, Ronnie Hillman
WR: Brandon Marshall, A.J. Green, Titus Young, Sidney Rice, Austin Collie
TE: Jermichael Finley
PK: Shayne Graham

Overview:

Your receivers are the strongest part of this team. While no team can be expected to be above average at all three core positions (QB/RB/WR), you are in the precarious position of being a bit weak at two of them.

Although you should not be counted out yet, you may need to be active on both the waiver wire and in trades to turn this team into a legitimate contender. The best way to achieve that might be to sacrifice some of your wide receiver strength to gain multiple players than can help your roster now. It's generally easier finding quarterbacks and wide receivers on the waiver wire than quality running backs.

Keep an eye out for quarterbacks like Cam Newton last year, Michael Vick and Josh Freeman in 2010, Brett Favre in 2009, Matt Cassel and Kurt Warner in 2008, and Derek Anderson in 2007. All were available cheap in August, and all contributed to fantasy championship teams. Likewise, running backs like Peyton Hillis, LeGarrette Blount, and Mike Tolbert all could be had dirt cheap at the draft or shortly after. You are likely going to need to land some of this year's top waiver plays, so pay close attention to increased workloads, targets, injuries, etc.

Players we particularly like on this team include Brandon Marshall, Jake Locker, and Ronnie Hillman. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.
Bottom line:

With great inseason management, we think you have about a 60 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With good inseason management, we think you have about a 45 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With average inseason management, we think you have a 24 percent chance of making the playoffs.

In any event, we wish you the best of luck. Here's hoping all your weeks are like week 10 of 2009:
Brandon Marshall vs. WAS: 134 receiving yards, 2 TD
Adrian Peterson vs. DET: 143 combined yards, 2 TD
Reggie Bush vs. STL: 98 combined yards, 2 TD
Sidney Rice vs. DET: 201 receiving yards

QB Summary:

We expect Matthew Stafford to be a solid starter. According to our projections, he's the #5 QB, so you should be better off than most teams in the starting quarterback slot.

Jake Locker, who we have rated as the #19 QB, should be a fine backup.

Incidentally, Locker has what we project as a neutral matchup (MIN) during Stafford's bye.

A quick note about the Stafford/Titus Young hookup you've got here: while we think the effect of the quarterback/receiver hookup has largely been exaggerated in fantasy football circles, it does have a tendency to make your team somewhat more inconsistent than comparable scoring duos from different NFL teams. But if you like the players at both ends of the connection, we do not see any need to make a change because of it.

We might suggest adding a bit more depth here. See the end of the report for some suggestions on who to pick up.

RB Summary:

We have Reggie Bush ranked #14 at the position, so we don't even necessarily see him as being RB1 worthy in this league. And we also have some doubts about whether your depth at running back is going to make up for it, so we feel this is an area of concern.

Adrian Peterson should serve as a very solid second running back. Ryan Williams, on the other hand, is an average-at-best third RB. Mikel Leshoure should serve as a very solid fourth running back. Ronnie Hillman should also be solidly above average at RB5.

Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:

Some members of our staff have Reggie Bush ranked as high as 12th, which would make him a fine first running back. Maurile Tremblay defends his high ranking as follows: "Last season, Reggie Bush became the running back many expected him to be when he was the second overall pick in the 2006 draft. He finished the year with four straight 100-yard rushing games before missing week 17 due to injury. When his season ended after week 16, he was the No. 9 fantasy running back. I don't worry as much as most do about Daniel Thomas and Lamar Miller cutting into Bush's carries this season."

WR Summary:

Nice work here. We like both your starting receivers, as our projections indicate that they give you a combined 3.5 point-per-game advantage over an average opponent in this league. Brandon Marshall is our fourth ranked WR, and we have A.J. Green at #7.

We see Titus Young as an average third receiver; he's a likely flex starter. Sidney Rice is also a fair-to-middlin' fourth receiver. Austin Collie should be a good fifth receiver.

Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:

Some members of our staff have Titus Young ranked as high as 32nd, which would make him a fine third receiver. Sigmund Bloom defends his high ranking as follows: "Ever since his "incident" with Louis Delmas that ostracized him from the team for a few Lions, Titus Young has been lights out in practices and ready to take a bigger role in one of the best pass offense in the league. He is a terrific WR4/WR5 to target in the 9th/10th round."

Some of our staffers have Sidney Rice as high as #29, which would make him a great fourth receiver and even a legitimate WR3. Steve Holloway's take: "Extremely talented wide receiver who has only one season in five where he played all 16 games. That year, he had 83 catches for 1,312 yards and 8 TDs. However, in none of his other years has he topped 500 receiving yards. Boom or bust selection at ADP of WR36."

Some members of our staff have Austin Collie ranked as high as 35th, which would make him a great fifth receiver and even a legitimate WR3. Steve Holloway defends his high ranking as follows: "After finishing at WR31 and WR32, the second time only playing in nine games, Collie fell far down the charts last year with only one TD. He is a sharp route runner with good hands and appears to be a great match with the cerebral rookie Andrew Luck. Continuing concussion issues increase the risks of drafting Collie."

TE Summary:

Jermichael Finley is our #7 TE, so he'll do, but this position may be a sore spot for you this season.

We might suggest adding a bit more depth here. See the end of the report for some suggestions on who to pick up.

Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:

Jermichael Finley is ranked #5 by some of our writers, which would make him an above average first tight end. Will Grant reasons, "Teams are going to be focusing on stopping the deep WR corps for Green Bay this year. With the emergence of Jordy Nelson last season, defenses will be leaving Finley in single coverage by guys who are smaller and less talented that he is. With Donald Driver in the twilight of his career, look for Finley to bounce back this season. "

Kicker Summary:

Shayne Graham, our 11th ranked kicker, is below average but probably adequate.

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#14

Holla die Waldfee, das war aber eine Arbeit. Danke Hyperdrive für diese viele Arbeit :-)

Ich habe noch nicht alles genau durchgelesen sondern eher überflogen und bei einigen Passagen hängen geblieben, aber ich denke die Einschätzung ist im großen und ganzen genauso wie wir das auch so selbst einschätzen konnten.

Schade, dass bei Footballguys keine Defense Spieler berücksichtigt werden. Das kann doch die eine oder andere Verschiebung bei einer Gesamtbeurteilung mit sich bringen. Fraglich ist natürlich auch immer wieder ob sich die Prognosen der Anbieter so entwickeln. Da kommt es auch sehr oft auf den Anbieter an. Gerade das Beispiel von meinen Backup QB Luck zeigt wie unterschiedlich es gesehen wird. Bei einigen Anbietern wird er besser gesehen als bei Footballguys. Fakt ist dass es bei Rookies immer Fragezeichen gibt, aber wo wären wir ohne Risiko ...

BTW: Was man hier vielleicht noch erwähnen muss ist doch dass bei der Bewertung keine Liga Einstellungen berücksichtigt werden, oder? Das kann ja auch je nach Liga sehr unterschiedliche Auswirkungen haben.

Die Saison wird es zeigen ...
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#15

Also ist eine coole Sache diese Einschätzungen mal zu lesen. Frage ist nur ob da dieses Scoring auch so rauskommt mit den PPR usw.

Schade natürlich auch das keine Defensespieler gewertet werden. Da hätte ich vielleicht noch etwas gut machen können.

Aber zumindest hat mich meine Einschätzung nicht betrogen als ich meinte das meine Draft nicht sooo toll war. Sad

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#16

platini schrieb:Also ist eine coole Sache diese Einschätzungen mal zu lesen. Frage ist nur ob da dieses Scoring auch so rauskommt mit den PPR usw.

Grundsätzlich ja, weil du nämlich das Scoring eingeben musst, auch wenn es nicht so fein geht wie auf z.B. MFL einzustellen ist, vor allem was es Kicker und DEF angeht.

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Keeper: AFFP 2014, AGS 2015, 2017, FFKL 2019, Hollywood Bowl Kate 2021
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Letzter Beitrag von platini
15.09.2022, 07:06

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