Beiträge: 5.654
Themen: 395
Registriert seit: 23.09.2007
Level:
53 []
Total Points: 59.744
Rank 132 / 1320
91% to upload Level
Activity 1.884 / 59744
98% to upload your Rank
Experience 83
17% to upload Experience
New Orleans Saints
Offense
QB: Drew Brees, Sam Bradford
RB: Darren McFadden, Ahmad Bradshaw, Mark Ingram, LaMichael James
WR: Vincent Jackson, Antonio Brown, Eric Decker, Greg Jennings, Kenny Stills
TE: Kyle Rudolph, Zach Sudfeld
PK: Dan Bailey
Overview:
With three Saints on board, your team appears to be appropriately named, so congratulations on that. Now on to the analysis...
We'll start by complimenting you on your strength at quarterback and receiver. As you know, it's very difficult in a competitive league to assemble a team that is strong at QB, RB, and WR, so just about every team will have a weakness. As you probably suspect, we perceive yours to be at running back.
This is often a tough weakness to mask, though, so you must be prepared to be very active in waivers and trades to change the composition of this team. Most drafts go very deep at the RB position and that usually means there are just table scraps left for those weak at the position.
But the good news is that running backs do emerge every year post-draft. Last year guys like Alfred Morris and Vick Ballard could be had dirt cheap at the draft. In fact most likely were not rostered before the season started. Yet all of these players could have taken a weakness and made it into a strength for their prospective owners. This is the move you are going to need to make this year to take this team to a clear contender.
Players we particularly like on this team include Antonio Brown and Eric Decker. We have both these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.
Bottom line:
With great inseason management, we think you have about a 45 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With good inseason management, we think you have about a 30 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With average inseason management, we think you have a 10 percent chance of making the playoffs.
QB Summary:
You don't need us to tell you this, but we'll tell you anyway: Drew Brees should ensure that your production at the quarterback position is among the best in the league. We have him as the #1 QB according to your scoring rules, and we figure he gives you about a 2.2 point-per-game advantage over an average starting QB.
Our projections don't show Sam Bradford as being a top-notch backup, but the issue will be moot as long as Brees stays healthy.
Incidentally, Bradford has what we project as a bad matchup (CAR) during Brees's bye.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Sam Bradford is ranked #12 by some of our writers, which would make him a great second quarterback and even a legitimate QB1. Heath Cummings reasons, "I've always thought that Sam Bradford was much better than his production indicated and this season we'll get to find out if I was right. The Rams have finally improved their offensive line and given Bradford some fun new toys to play with in Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey. This team is stacked with so many you receivers that I have a hard time believing at least two of them aren't really good options. Oh yeah, and they added Jared Cook. Bradford has all the tools to put together his first season of QB1 production."
RB Summary:
We see both your starters at running back as below average. Our projections have Darren McFadden ranked 22nd and Ahmad Bradshaw ranked at #28.
Mark Ingram should be a good third running back. But LaMichael James is out of his league as a fourth RB.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Some of our staffers have Darren McFadden as high as #15. Andy Hicks's take: "Darren McFadden was a major disappointment in 2012 and a key reason for that was the square peg in a round hole approach of the new Oakland regime. If they haven't figured out how best to use McFadden in 2013, then they deserve to be fired at the end of this year. I am hoping they come to their senses and design their offense to best use McFadden. The good news is that his draft slot will be considerably lower this season, but his ceiling will be just as high as 2012. Unfortunately he has an incredibly low floor as well, so you take your chances. "
Some members of our staff have Ahmad Bradshaw ranked as high as 24th, which would make him a fine second running back. Matt Waldman defends his high ranking as follows: "Bradshaw is a fine pass protector who limits quarterback hits and sacks. He only gave up 7 in over 500 attempts. He's also a creative runner who plays hurt. He's not a long-term option, which is why he didn't get signed during the early free agent period. However, for a playoff team seeking a one-year upgrade to Vick Ballard or at least quality depth of rotation, this signing makes sense. Low-end RB2 material for me with a little more PPR upside, but not a lot more than that. "
Mark Ingram is ranked #25 by some of our writers, which would make him an above average third running back. Andrew Garda reasons, "Ingram got the most carries last season, but that doesn't make much of a difference as this is a pretty messy running back-by-committee situation. I expect Ingram to get more touches this year as he takes some of the workload off Pierre Thomas. Ingram is also what passes for a goal line back in this group, for what little that's worth. Ultimately, he will get enough yards to function as a No. 2 running back for a fantasy team, or a flex spot player. "
LaMichael James is ranked #44 by some of our writers, which would make him a fine fourth running back. Chad Parsons reasons, "James is still the best fit for the spread concepts San Francisco runs with Colin Kaepernick under center. Frank Gore is still the lead back, but James is the most intriguing secondary option."
WR Summary:
Your starting receivers should, as a unit, be adequate but not great. In particular we like Antonio Brown as a second WR. Vincent Jackson is our #8 ranked receiver, and we have Brown at #17.
Your bench looks good and should help offset the unexciting starting unit. Tough to do better than Eric Decker at WR3; he's a likely flex starter. Greg Jennings is also a very nice WR4.
We're not sure that Kenny Stills adds much, as you're already strong at the position and we aren't convinced he's roster-worthy in this league anyway.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Some of our staffers have Vincent Jackson as high as #5, which would make him an above average first receiver. Mark Wimer's take: "Jackson is in a great situation down in Tampa Bay, with good surrounding talent and the trust of strong-armed Josh Freeman - what's not to like? Jackson should have no problem meeting or exceeding last year's numbers as long as he steers clear of off-field entanglements (which he managed to do last season). "
Some members of our staff have Kenny Stills ranked as high as 52nd, which would make him an above average fifth receiver. Chad Parsons defends his high ranking as follows: "Stills has shown a knack for making big plays down the field a la Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem of New Orleans offenses past. He is more of a situational player that is worthwhile in a draftmaster format than one to figure out when to start in traditional fantasy leagues."
TE Summary:
Kyle Rudolph is viable but below average as a starting tight end (we have him ranked #8). We're also not too fired up about Zach Sudfeld as a backup.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Kyle Rudolph is ranked #4 by some of our writers, which would make him an above average first tight end. Chad Parsons reasons, "Rudolph has been a major red zone factor through two seasons, converting a Gronkowski-like 11-of-19 targets into touchdowns. With the additions of Greg Jennings and Cordarrelle Patterson, Rudolph may need to match his nine touchdowns from a year ago to be an upper-tier tight end option. "
Some members of our staff have Zach Sudfeld ranked as high as 12th, which would make him a great second tight end and even a legitimate TE1. Matt Waldman defends his high ranking as follows: "Sudfeld is a huge target with fluid athleticism. He has excellent concentration to win the ball in tight coverage while making adjustments that expose him to big hits. He has above average NFL athleticism at his position. He's not super fast, but he's quick and agile. Expect Sudfeld to be a hot commodity while Rob Gronkowski is on the bench early in the season and don't expect his production to drop off completely once Gronkowski returns. There's room for a player like Sudfeld to produce in 12 personnel sets. "
Kicker Summary:
Dan Bailey, our 13th ranked kicker, is below average but probably adequate.
Defense
LB: D`Qwell Jackson, DeMeco Ryans, Lawrence Timmons, Manti Te'o, Alec Ogletree
DL: Calais Campbell, Chandler Jones, Michael Bennett, Da'Quan Bowers
DB: Charles Tillman, Cortland Finnegan, T.J. Ward
LB Summary:
There is also the consideration that Jackson will be playing in a new scheme as the weak inside backer in the Brown new 3-4. While a new scheme always brings risk and uncertainty, this situation could turn Jackson back into an IDP gold mine. There are some who believe he has been playing out of position as a 4-3 middle linebacker, and that his skill set would have been a better fit on the weak side. The weak inside spot in the 3-4 may well be the best of both worlds. He has been healthy for two years, will have a talented and stout trio of linemen to work behind, is a sure tackler with a good deal of big play ability. A return to the top 12 in 2013 is a serious possibility.
Ryans was solid, but not spectacular in his first season with the Eagles. He was the one consistent fantasy presence on a team that struggled to produce viable fantasy options all season long. The switch to the 3-4 may have a slightly negative impact on Ryans numbers, but he's still a solid LB2-/LB3+.
It is Timmons big play ability that makes him particularly intriguing. Over the past five seasons he has recovered 4 fumbles, forced 10, intercepted 7 passes and recorded 23 sacks. Timmons got off to a slow and inconsistent start last season be finished very strong with 29 tackles, 5 sacks a forced and a recovered fumble over the final 4 games. There is some risk involved for anyone who picks up Timmons as their number one linebacker, but if he can pick up where he left off he could very well finish among the top 10 in 2013.
Teo steps into an outstanding situation in San Diego and should get a chance to play significant snaps in his rookie campaign. There are definite questions if Teo's speed can play at this level but many think that his instincts and motor will make up for his lack of speed. He was one of the most decorated college linebackers in recent history and should get a chance to play immediately.
With James Laurinaitis firmly ensconced in the middle, Ogletree will settle into an outside role, where weakside linebacker could be the best fit for his skill set. With the coverage ability and ball skills of a former safety in a 6'3", 242 pound frame, he will immediately strengthen the third down defense. Ogletree also made sense within the context of the NFC West division, as he will help contain the mobile quarterbacks of the 49ers and Seahawks. He has the well rounded talent and complete game to elevate the front seven into becoming one of the best in the NFL. If he emerges as a three down weak side linebacker, Jo-Lonn Dunbar was an extremely productive (top 10-15) IDP in this role last season.
DL Summary:
"They want us to shove (offensive linemen) back and be able to shed blocks quicker and make tackles in the backfield, which I think Dockett and myself would be very, very good at," said Campbell. "We’re very athletic." Campbell didn't have any troubles in previous DC Ray Horton's "two-gap" scheme, but Dockett was openly displeased. Campbell has a chance to be an even bigger star. The 6-foot-8, 300-pound 26-year-old has 14.5 sacks and a J.J. Watt-esque 18 batted passes over the last two seasons.
Jones is an athletic and explosive edge rusher with the potential to develop into one of the better defensive ends in the league. If he can stay healthy and the Patriots secondary holds up, double digit sacks are a good possibility. Consider him a DE2 with upside, particularly in dynasty or keeper leagues.
The Buccaneers are expecting big things from Bowers in 2013, but not so long ago there was doubt if he would ever play another down for the team after a gun charge. Bowers escaped with a fine, and should be more motivated than ever to prove his worth after the departure of Michael Bennett to Seattle. Bowers should beat out Daniel Te'o-Nesheim for the starting LDE berth and be a solid DL2 for IDP owners on an improving defensive unit. This offseason, Bowers said that anything less than 10 sacks in 2013 would be a failure for him.
The Seahawks will use Michael Bennett as a three-technique interior pass rusher after he played left end in Tampa Bay.
With LE Red Bryant and RE Cliff Avril on the ends, the Seahawks will open with NT Brandon Mebane and DT Bennett as the interior linemen. Bennett has plenty of experience as an interior defender, having played three-technique tackle in Tampa Bay's nickel and dime packages. The Seahawks will also bring Bruce Irvin off the edge on pass-rush downs. Irvin had eight sacks as a rookie.
DB Summary:
At 32 years of age, Tillman is likely reaching a point in his career where he will start to slow down and may need to consider moving inside to safety. In the Tampa 2 defense that Chicago favors, however, he has a chance to extend his career the same way that Ronde Barber did in Tampa. A physical player with good size and great playmaking instincts, Tillman is a truly elite corner and probably one of the most valuable IDPs in the league.
Teammates appreciate Finnegan's tone setting physicality and tenaciousness. He instantly made St. Louis a better defense the moment he stepped onto the field. Finnegan justified his hefty contract with a career-tying 83 solo tackles and a handful of big plays, with 3 INTs, one sack and a FF in 2013. He also had one of his best seasons in IDP leagues, with a top five finish in some scoring systems. At 28 years old, he continues to play at a high level and appears to still be in his prime.
As a rookie in 2010 T.J. Ward finished among the top five defensive back in terms of fantasy production. Since that time he has missed a number of games with injury while producing marginal and/or inconsistent numbers even when healthy. Cleveland's front seven is stronger entering 2013 than they have been at any point during Ward's short career, so there is no reason for high expectations.
FKL 08 - Franken Warriors